At current oil prices, this oil producer is gushing cash flows.

While oil is often regarded as a "dirty" resource, its significance and relevance persist in the foreseeable future. Despite the ongoing initiatives by developed nations to shift towards green energy, oil maintains its status as the predominant global energy source. It continues to power transportation systems, industries, and economies worldwide. With its abundant supply and high energy density, oil serves as an efficient and easily accessible fuel for critical sectors such as aviation, shipping, manufacturing, and notably, the military. Additionally, oil plays a vital role in electricity generation, particularly in regions heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

Oil also serves as a fundamental raw material for countless industries. The petrochemical sector heavily relies on oil as a feedstock for producing plastics, synthetic fibers, fertilizers, and pharmaceuticals. These products are integral components of modern society, with applications in construction, packaging, textiles, agriculture, and healthcare. As such, the continued relevance of oil extends beyond its role as an energy source, making it an essential driver of economic growth, innovation, and technological advancement.

In this article, we will look at a prominent oil producer located in South America. This particular company has been on my radar for almost a year, and I have been eagerly awaiting a decline in its share price to seize a more favorable entry point. So far though, the stock has experienced nothing but a consistent upward trajectory since I started following it. I remain confident that exercising patience will eventually pay off and lead to a pullback, enabling me to acquire it at a more advantageous price.



The largest independent oil producer in Colombia



Parex is an independent exploration and production company in Colombia, focusing on sustainable, conventional oil and gas production.

Parex Resources, a prominent independent oil and gas exploration and production company, has established itself as a key player in Colombia's energy landscape. It is now the largest independent oil producer in the country. With a focus on operational excellence and a robust portfolio of assets, Parex Resources continues to deliver impressive financial performance.

In addition to its operational achievements, Parex Resources has demonstrated a solid financial foundation. The company's revenues have witnessed steady growth, propelled by increased production levels and favorable oil prices. With a disciplined approach to capital allocation and debt management, Parex Resources maintains a strong balance sheet, further enhancing its financial stability. As the company continues to prioritize sustainability and social responsibility, Parex Resources is poised to deliver long-term value to its shareholders while contributing to the development of local communities.

For the most recent quarter, Parex Resources delivered a robust financial performance. The company reported record-high revenues and strong cash flow generation, indicating its ability to capitalize on increased production levels and favorable oil prices. Parex Resources maintained a low-cost structure, allowing it to weather market fluctuations and deliver consistent profitability. The company's disciplined approach to capital allocation and debt management contributed to a solid balance sheet. The company boasts a debt-free balance sheet, a large cash pile of USD $372 million and positive free cash flows. Overall, Parex Resources' financial performance in the most recent quarter reflects its strong position in the energy sector and its commitment to creating long-term value for shareholders.


Q1 Highlights

  • Funds flow provided by operations (FFO): Generated FFO of $162 million for Q1 2023, resulting in FFO per share of $1.49. This represents a 21% decrease from Q1 2022.
  • Production: Average daily production was 51,332 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) during Q1 2023. This is in line with Q1 2022 and a 5% decrease from Q4 2022 due to the temporary suspension of operations at Capachos. The company expects to meet the lower end of its FY 2023 production guidance of 57,000 to 63,000 boe/d.
  • Net income: Realized net income of $104 million or $0.96 per share basic for Q1 2023.
  • Dividend: Declared a Q2 2023 regular dividend of C$0.375 per share or C$1.50 per share annualized.
  • Capital expenditures: Incurred $114 million in capital expenditures and participated in the drilling of 14 gross wells during the quarter.
  • Shares repurchased: Repurchased approximately 2.5 million shares year-to-date 2023 under the current normal course issuer bid (NCIB).


The company has achieved remarkable success in reducing its outstanding shares. In 2017, the number of shares stood at approximately 165 million, which has significantly decreased to 107 million as of the end of Q1/2023, representing a 35% decrease over six years. Additionally, the company initiated a quarterly dividend two years ago, currently amounting to $0.37 per share per quarter. This equates to an annual dividend of $1.50 per share, resulting in a respectable yield of 5.25%. The management has expressed their intention to distribute 100% of the 2023 free funds flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

Despite the decline in oil prices since their peak in March 2022, the company's stock has experienced a remarkable surge over the past six months. It has surged from $17.94 in December 2022 to $28.51 at the closing on June 2nd, 2023, marking a 50% increase in a short period of time. Even at these elevated prices, the stock maintains a low P/E (Price-to-earnings) multiple of less than 6 times, which indicates favorable valuation.





Financials

A brief analysis of the past four years indicates that Parex has consistently delivered strong performance. The company's balance sheet is robust, boasting over $400 million in cash reserves and no debt. Additionally, Parex has generated substantial free cash flows, which have been judiciously utilized for share buybacks.


ANNUAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION

In USD$ 2022 2021 2020 2019
Net Sales $1,311 $900M $532M $978M
Net Income $611M $303M $140M $101M
Netback/boe $59 $43 $21 $38
EPS $5.38 $2.41 $0.71 $2.20
Cash $419M $378M $331M $397M
Total debt $6.1M $4.5M $1.8M $0.8M
Free Funds Flow $213M $305M $156M $362M
Dividends $75M $48M $0 $0
Buybacks $221M $218M $171M $224M
ROE 36% 22% 7.4% 23%
Current ratio 1.2 2.3 3.6 2.6


Takeaway

Oil will continue to play a crucial role in many sectors of the global economy. With all the attention being given to transitioning to green energy, I'm not sure if politicians fully appreciate how vital oil is to the global economy. Quite honestly, I am surprised that oil prices aren't trading higher, given all the recent geopolitical actions. This past week, there was an incident involving a Chinese fighter plane flying dangerously close to an American spy plane. Any military miscalculation between two superpowers could send oil prices spiking much higher overnight.

Parex Resources is a great candidate to add to the watchlist, and hopefully, later add it to the portfolio. But for now, I will continue to watch it from a distance. It's a solid company, and as good as it looks on paper, there are a few things that give me cause for concern. The first and greatest cause for concern is the political risk from the new government in Colombia. During his election campaign, Gustavo Petro, the current president and a former member of a guerrilla group, promised social reform and a shift away from oil, gas, and mining. The other cause for concern is the decline in the company's working capital. This may not be a big deal since the company is generating strong cash flows, has zero debt, and a large pile of cash. However, over the past two years, its working capital went from over $300 million to $30 million at the end of Q1/2023.

For now, I am adding this stock to the watchlist and assigning it an entry target price below $18 per share. I understand that this may appear to be a low target price, and there is a risk that oil prices could unexpectedly surge overnight. However, as I mentioned earlier, I am not in a hurry to add any positions to the portfolio. At the moment, I am satisfied with adding names to the watchlist and patiently awaiting a market correction or crash.


Remember that this is not a stock recommendation. This is just something to consider. You can access the watchlist and portfolio through the link below. By clicking the link below you accept all responsibility for any potential losses that might result from buying any of the stocks mentioned in this newsletter.


Do you have questions, comments or simply want to chat? Send me an email.