Liberation Day
April 2025 turned out to be one of the most eventful months in recent market history.
On Wednesday, April 2nd, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on nearly all major U.S. trading partners—a move he called “Liberation Day.” The markets didn’t take long to react. The Dow plunged over 1,600 points on Thursday and another 2,200 on Friday. In just two days, more than 3,600 points were wiped out.
It wasn’t the full-blown crash I had hoped for, but it was a solid opportunity to buy quality businesses at better prices. Stocks recovered slightly in the weeks that followed, and while the panic didn’t last long, it was long enough to start building positions in a few names I’ve had on my radar.
I still don’t think we’re in the clear. A strong bull market doesn’t seem likely just yet. To me, April felt more like a warning than a turning point. As of now, the trade war with China is still ongoing. If it continues, we could start seeing the effects within a few months—fewer products on store shelves and rising prices. In a worst-case scenario, it could also lead to job losses as businesses adjust to higher costs and supply shortages.
It’s hard to say what’s coming. Some days I feel like a recession is just around the corner. Other times, I wonder if we’re about to enter a very different kind of cycle—one driven by governments ramping up spending on defense and infrastructure. If global tensions keep rising, we could see a rush to re-arm, stockpile raw materials, and rebuild factories at home. That kind of shift wouldn’t feel like a typical recovery, but it could still drive a very real, very strange kind of boom.
War Preparations
Lately, I’ve been noticing a shift in the air.
Business activity, especially in areas like entertainment, dining out, and retail, seems to be slowing. It’s not dramatic yet, but it’s there if you’re paying attention. At the same time, I’m seeing something else: the world’s major powers are starting to take war preparation more seriously. That means more government spending—on infrastructure, on energy security, and on the raw materials needed to build and defend a nation.
And while parts of the old economy are cooling, other areas are just heating up.
AI spending hasn’t slowed at all. If anything, it’s accelerating. But we’re still in the early days. To use a baseball analogy, we’re in the second inning. Most of us still don’t interact with AI on a daily basis in any meaningful way—but that’s going to change fast. We’re moving toward a world of intelligent agents that not only assist us, but take initiative, make decisions, and complete tasks on our behalf.
Robotics is another big theme I’m tracking. The combination of AI and robotics will be one of the most powerful forces shaping the next decade. Over the next five years, I expect we’ll see humanoid robots working side by side with humans—in warehouses, factories, and even homes. That might sound like science fiction, but it’s already happening. Robotaxi services are now operating in cities like Austin and San Francisco, and in China, companies like Baidu (Apollo Go), AutoX, Pony.ai, and WeRide are testing and expanding their robotaxi fleets in places like Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Beijing.
Put all of this together, and you start to see where things are heading. The next five years may be defined by re-armament and onshoring. We’ll likely see continued investment in AI, data centers, and robotics—especially intelligent robots and autonomous agents. But there’s a flip side. If these technologies continue to grow, we could also see mass layoffs in retail and other service industries. It’s going to be a time of disruption, but also one of great opportunity—for those positioned in the right places.
With that bigger picture in mind, I added some new names to the portfolio this April—each one chosen with the next five years in view.
Building My Commodity Core
All this talk of AI, robotics, and space exploration tends to focus on software, chips, and data—but none of it happens without raw materials. The future may be digital, but it’s built on real-world resources like copper, iron, lithium, and cobalt. As demand for these technologies grows, so will the need for the materials that power them.
That’s why I’m building a diversified base of commodity exposure in my portfolio. I also see oil and gas as a strategic hedge, especially in a world that’s becoming more geopolitically unstable. To that end, I added more units of the BMO Covered Call Energy ETF (TSX:ZWEN). It holds major names in the energy sector and offers a strong monthly dividend yield of nearly 9%, which helps generate income while I wait.
BMO Covered Call Energy - Top 10 Holdings
| COMPANY | TICKER | PERCENTAGE |
| WILLIAM COS INC | WMB | 5.59% |
| ENBRIDGE INC | ENB | 5.54% |
| TC ENERGY CORP | TRP | 5.50% |
| MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP | MPC | 5.28% |
| KINDER MORGAN INC | KMI | 5.26% |
| SUNCOR ENERGY INC | SU | 5.17% |
| CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD | CNQ | 5.17% |
| ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC | SHEL | 5.10% |
| EXXON MOBIL CORP | XOM | 5.01% |
| TOTAL ENERGIES SE | TTE | 4.97% |
I also increased my position in Amerigo Resources, (TSX:ARG) one of my favorite copper plays. They recover copper from tailings in Chile and pay a 6.5% dividend, distributed quarterly. It’s a small cap, but I like its cash flow and exposure to copper—a metal I believe will be in strong demand over the next decade.
Finally, I opened a half position in the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ). I’ve been watching silver closely, and I think it has much more room to run—especially when compared to gold. The gold-to-silver ratio is hovering near 100 to 1, which historically has been a signal that silver is undervalued. If we get any move toward mean reversion, silver miners could have serious upside.
Betting on Agentic AI
Agentic AI isn’t coming — it’s already here. We’re seeing it replace humans in places like drive-thrus and call centers, quietly slipping into roles that used to require a person. These systems aren’t just answering questions anymore—they’re making decisions, learning from interactions, and adapting to new tasks. The shift is happening faster than most people realize.
Behind the scenes, agentic AI is already embedded in software systems, automating repetitive workflows—paying invoices, generating reports, managing tickets. These agents are getting smarter with each iteration, expanding their reach across departments and industries. It’s not hard to imagine a near future where entire teams are supported—or replaced—by digital workers.
This is a future I want exposure to. In the February issue of this newsletter, I wrote about UiPath, one of the pioneers in this space. This month, I added another name to the portfolio: Five9 Inc. (NASDAQ: FIVN). Five9 is a leader in cloud contact center solutions powered by AI. Their platform helps companies manage customer service and sales interactions using both human agents and increasingly, AI-powered virtual agents. They’ve been winning new clients in sectors like airlines, insurance, healthcare, and finance—industries where automation can save time, cut costs, and improve customer experience.
I think Five9 is well-positioned for what’s coming. As of December 31st, they had $1 billion in cash and $730 million in debt. Revenue reached $1.04 billion in 2024, up from $610 million in 2021. Free cash flow for the year was around $100 million, with 75 million shares outstanding. It’s not a tiny startup anymore—this is a serious player with growing reach.
If the economy weakens and companies need to cut costs, I believe firms like Five9 will step in with solutions that are cheaper than human labor. Businesses that adopt agentic AI will have a major edge in efficiency and scalability—and those that don’t will fall behind. I want to be on the right side of that shift.
Lean Years Ahead.
There’s no shortage of uncertainty in today’s markets. The sweeping tariffs announced earlier this month have introduced a new layer of economic risk, and geopolitics continues to act as a wild card. Whether it’s trade tensions with China or the broader undercurrents of global conflict, the landscape is shifting quickly—and unpredictably.
In the middle of all this, gold touched an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce earlier this month before settling back to around $3,300 by the end of April. That move alone says a lot about how investors are feeling. Meanwhile, the gold-to-silver ratio has hit 100 to 1—an extreme level that historically signals opportunity in silver. At around $32 per ounce, I think silver offers good value as a hedge, which is why I added a small position in SILJ, the junior silver miners ETF. I don’t want to make a big bet on precious metals, but I do want to be protected in case we see a major geopolitical shock.
And I do think something big is coming. Whether it’s another war, a financial crisis, or something none of us see coming yet, I believe the next shock to the system will send precious metals much higher. I’m not building my portfolio around that outcome—but I want some protection just in case.
At the same time, I’m holding onto a significant amount of cash. With the global economy on shaky ground, it feels wise to stay flexible. If the U.S.–China trade war escalates, we could be looking at a sharp slowdown—or even a full-blown recession. I think that’s more likely at this point than a new bull market. Having cash on hand gives me the option to act if prices fall sharply again.
I’m also watching the consumer closely. There are signs of stress. Some airlines are lowering guidance, and fast food chains are warning of weaker demand. If the trade dispute drags on, we may start to see shortages of Chinese-made goods, followed by rising prices and potential job losses. It’s not hard to imagine how that could ripple through the economy.
These are fascinating times—and also a little unnerving. On one hand, we’re seeing incredible breakthroughs in AI, robotics, and automation. On the other hand, there’s this lingering sense that we’re heading into something hard. Maybe it’s the beginning of a long squeeze—tough decisions, tight budgets, and uncertainty about what’s next. Like the biblical story of the seven skinny cows, I think we may be entering a leaner season. But I’m staying alert, patient, and positioned for both risk and opportunity.
Remember that the content of this newsletter is neither a stock recommendation nor investment advice. This is just something to consider. You can access my watchlist and portfolio through the link below. By clicking the link below you accept all responsibility for any potential losses that might result from buying any of the stocks mentioned in this newsletter.