When Even Amazon Can’t Get Power.

Earlier this year, Amazon hit a wall in Ireland. They had plans for another giant data center, but the project never got off the ground. Not because of money, or politics, or red tape — but because they simply couldn’t get enough electricity to power it. The grid couldn’t handle the load.

That story stuck with me. To me, it feels like a preview of what’s coming. Over the next couple of years, I think we’re heading into a serious electricity crunch. The signs are everywhere. Human population is at an all-time high — and just imagine how much more power will be needed five or ten years from now to sustain daily life. At the same time, AI systems are multiplying, humming day and night inside new data centers. Add millions of EVs charging in garages, and it’s clear the grid is already stretched to its limits.

If I’m right, we could be living through rolling blackouts in places like North America and Europe. This isn’t some distant problem — it’s a real risk taking shape right in front of us. And if you need a preview of what that looks like, just look back to April, when Spain and Portugal lost power for 12 hours, leaving millions without electricity through the day.

Mega-cap tech companies see this problem too. They’re spending billions to secure their own future power supply — building solar farms, signing long-term energy contracts, even exploring nuclear. At the same time, they’re investing heavily in technologies that cut electricity consumption, because efficiency will matter just as much as new supply.

That’s where I’ve been focusing my attention: on companies positioned to be part of the solution to this electricity crunch. My search led me to one that has quietly built its business around making buildings more self-reliant and efficient. Its systems are already running in hospitals, universities, and apartment complexes — cutting costs, easing strain on the grid, and keeping heating, cooling, and power flowing when it matters most. In a world where electricity is becoming the new oil, I believe this company could play a much bigger role than most people expect.

Heating, Cooling, and a Smarter Way Forward


When you look at where electricity actually gets used, a huge share comes down to two things: heating and cooling. Every building needs them. Boilers keep hospitals, schools, and apartments warm. Chillers keep data centers, offices, and factories cool. Together, they’re some of the biggest drivers of electricity demand — and some of the biggest stress points for the grid.

And, the way we bring electricity to buildings today is clumsy. Power plants burn natural gas to make electricity, but in the process, enormous amounts of heat are produced and simply released into the air. Then that electricity travels miles before it finally reaches a building, where more energy is burned again by boilers and chillers.

But there’s a smarter way. Instead of burning natural gas at a faraway power plant and wasting half the energy as heat, we can pipe that gas directly to the building. There, it can be used in a small on-site power system called CHP, short for Combined Heat and Power. A CHP unit makes electricity for the building, but instead of letting the leftover heat go to waste, it captures it and puts it to work — providing hot water, space heating, or even cooling. When you pair a CHP system with a natural-gas-powered chiller, the building can cover its own electricity, heating, and cooling needs, all while relying much less on the grid.

And this is exactly where the company I’ve been studying comes in. Tecogen Inc. builds these systems — cogeneration units that generate electricity and heat on-site, plus natural-gas-powered chillers that cut down the need for grid electricity. Together, they give buildings a smarter, more resilient way forward.


Tecogen’s Solutions: A Perfect Fit for the Energy Crunch

So what exactly does Tecogen do? In a nutshell, they make systems that let buildings become their own mini power plants. They have two main product lines that work hand-in-hand.

First, their cogeneration (CHP) systems. These are basically small, on-site power plants that run on natural gas. They generate electricity right where it’s needed and capture the leftover heat for things like heating water or warming the building. Instead of wasting that heat at a faraway plant, the building uses it on the spot.

Then there are their natural-gas-powered chillers, which handle cooling without drawing heavily on the electric grid. These chillers are like building-scale air conditioners that use natural gas engines instead of electricity. Pair them with a CHP system, and a building can generate its own power, use the waste heat, and keep itself cool — all while easing the load on the grid.

In other words, Tecogen’s technology is perfectly built for the energy crunch we see coming. It’s a practical, ready-now solution: it makes buildings more self-sufficient, reduces their dependence on a stressed grid, and helps them stay resilient when demand spikes. In a future where electricity is the new bottleneck, that kind of independence is going to be a game-changer.

Why Tecogen Could Be a Smart Investment

As we look at the big picture, Tecogen sits right in the sweet spot of a growing need for energy efficiency and self-reliance. The market tailwinds are clear: as electricity demand surges and the grid gets more fragile, solutions like Tecogen’s become more essential.

What makes this even more compelling is their new global partnership with Vertiv Holdings (NYSE:VRT), announced in March 2025. Vertiv is a $10+ billion company and one of the biggest names in critical digital infrastructure, with deep ties to data centers around the world. Through this deal, Vertiv will now offer Tecogen’s natural-gas-powered chiller technology to data centers everywhere — a sector under extreme strain as AI drives up both power use and cooling needs.

This isn’t just a distribution boost; it’s a credibility boost. Vertiv has built its business on mission-critical systems that data centers trust to run 24/7, and by adding Tecogen’s chillers to its portfolio, Vertiv is signaling that this technology is battle-tested and ready for the big stage. Investors clearly took notice — the stock has rocketed from under $2 to over $8 year-to-date.

Tecogen’s systems have already proven themselves over 40 years in hospitals and industrial sites, but now, with Vertiv’s global sales reach and integration expertise, the company is positioned to scale rapidly into one of the most important growth markets of the decade: AI-driven data centers.

For investors, this partnership could be transformative. It gives Tecogen instant access to a global customer base it couldn’t have reached alone, and it ties their growth story directly to one of the biggest megatrends unfolding today — the race to build and cool the data centers powering artificial intelligence.

Of course, Tecogen remains a small-cap stock with the risks that come along with it. But with strong industry tailwinds, a world-class partner in Vertiv, and a technology suite that directly addresses one of the most urgent infrastructure bottlenecks, the opportunity looks hard to ignore.

Before getting carried away with the potential, it’s worth looking under the hood. Let’s take a closer look at Tecogen’s financials to see how the business is actually running today.

There are roughly 5,400 data centers in the U.S. alone. Even if just a small percentage of those install Tecogen’s natural-gas-powered chillers, it could represent a monumental opportunity for the company.

2025 Financials

Tecogen’s first half of 2025 paints a picture of a small company with momentum — but also with real financial growing pains.

In Q1, revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $7.3 million, driven by strong product sales — especially chillers and cogeneration units. Gross margins improved to 44.3%, up from 41.6% a year earlier, thanks to pricing and mix. By Q2, momentum accelerated: revenue climbed 54% year-over-year to $7.3 million, bringing first-half revenue to $14.6 million, up 34% from the same period in 2024. The big swing came from products again — with chiller shipments (including the first hybrid-drive air-cooled units) surging more than 25x compared to Q2 last year.

While Q1 margins looked healthy, Q2 revealed the challenge of scaling. Gross margin slipped to 33.8% as the hybrid chiller carried higher launch costs, and service margins weakened in one region (Manhattan/NJ) due to fleet upgrades and overtime. Operating expenses also ticked up in both quarters as Tecogen added staff and shouldered higher commissions. Net losses narrowed in Q1 to $0.66 million (vs. $1.1M last year), but widened again in Q2 to $1.46 million. For the first half combined, Tecogen lost $2.1 million, an improvement from a $2.6 million loss a year ago, but still negative.

Cash ended Q1 at $4.1 million, down from $5.4 million at year-end. By Q2, it had slipped further to $1.6 million, forcing the company to raise $18.2 million in July through a public offering. That raise gives Tecogen breathing room to scale manufacturing and pursue its data center strategy. On the balance sheet, shareholder equity stood at about $9 million versus liabilities of roughly $19 million — not debt-heavy, but thin for a company with such ambitious growth targets.

Where things get interesting is the backlog. As of Q1, Tecogen carried $9.5 million in product and installation backlog, up from $5.6 million the year before. In Q2, management announced its first LOI for a massive 100+ MW data center project, with potential to expand to 500 MW. The pilot alone calls for six chillers, with the possibility of dozens more. In addition, Tecogen is quoting two projects for 60–100 chillers each, plus several early-stage deals with similar potential. If even a fraction of these opportunities convert, revenue could scale far beyond current levels.

The story so far is one of strong top-line growth, an expanding backlog, and high-potential partnerships (like Vertiv) — but offset by continued losses, and reliance on external capital. This isn’t a company with a fortress balance sheet. It’s a small-cap betting big on its new chiller technology and the exploding demand from data centers. Execution over the next few quarters — converting pipeline to purchase orders and lifting margins as volumes rise — will be critical in determining whether Tecogen stays a niche player or graduates into something much larger.


ANNUAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION

In USD$ 2021 2022 2023 2024
Sales $24M $25M $25M $22M
Gross profit $11.6M $11.1M $10.2M $9.9M
Gross margin 47.5% 44.3% 40.6% 43.6%
Net income $3.7M -$2.4M -$4.6M -$4.8M
Cash $3.6M $1.9M $1.4M $5.4M
Debt -- -- -- --
Free cash flows $0.4M -$1.7M -$0.9M $3.1M
Shares Outstanding 24.9M 24.9M 24.9M 24.9M
Current ratio 2.8 2.9 1.9 1.3
ROE 19.3% -12.2% -27.3% -38.4%

My Take as an Investor

I don’t see Tecogen as a perfect company — the balance sheet isn’t the fortress style I usually prefer, but it’s not terrible either. Margins still need work, though the CFO has said gross margins are expected to move toward the 50% range in time. For now, the company is still losing money. But I do see a business that’s sitting in the right place at the right time. The energy crunch isn’t going away, and data centers are only going to get hungrier for cooling solutions. Partnering with Vertiv gives Tecogen reach they could never achieve on their own, and the pipeline they’re building suggests that demand is real.

For me, this is the kind of stock that belongs in the “speculative but promising” bucket of the portfolio. It’s not a core holding like a fortress compounder or a dividend payer, but it’s a bet on a technology that could see explosive adoption if just a few of these big projects land. And because the market is only just starting to connect the dots between energy demand, AI, and cooling, I think Tecogen has room to surprise on the upside.

For now, I’ve started with a half position at $8.80, and I’m planning to add more if the stock pulls back into the $6 range. Over the next few quarters, I’ll be watching closely for signs that those LOIs and quotes are converting into real orders, and that margins on the new chillers are improving with scale. If Tecogen executes, this could be one of those small companies that grows into a much larger role in the new energy economy.

PORTFOLIO JOURNAL

The Calm Before The Storm

We’re stepping into September — historically one of the most volatile months for markets — and yet the world feels oddly calm on the surface. Beneath it, plenty is happening: the U.S. has sent warships to the Venezuelan coast, the war in Ukraine grinds on, and no one can say how any of it will end. That uncertainty shapes how I build my portfolio. Right now, I’m hedged with oil & gas ETFs, crypto ETFs, and even a small junior silver miner position. For me, resources are defensive positions — insurance against geopolitical shocks.

I’ve said it before, but I’ll repeat it: I think resources and commodities are going to be in demand whether we find peace or stumble into deeper conflict. That’s why I lean on ETFs that not only give me exposure to those sectors but also pay me monthly income. I treat them as both hedges and cash generators — geopolitical insurance that pays me to hold.

This year I also took the time to clean up my portfolio. I sold a number of positions that had been sitting underwater and not performing the way I had anticipated. Pruning those weeds has left me with a leaner, stronger portfolio — and the results have been noticeably better since I made those cuts.

This month I also made a move into ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON), building a full position at an average below $49. Right away, I sold September 12th $55 calls against the shares. My plan is to continue generating monthly income from this position by selling calls, treating it as both a growth bet and an income stream.

I also think ON will be a perfect stock for the future I envision — a world filled with AI, EVs, and robots. Its chips and power solutions are already central to these industries, and the demand should only grow as these technologies scale into everyday life.

So what’s my next move? Stay put. I’m holding my line with a 50% cash position, waiting for a pullback. In the meantime, I’ll keep collecting income from ETFs and option premiums, letting the reserves build until the battlefield presents a better opening.

For now, the next move is no move.


PORTFOLIO
GROWTH Ticker Date added Initial Price Current price Return (%)
EQT Corp. NYSE:EQT Jul16/24 $33.48USD $51.60USD +54%
ASTERA LABS NASDAQ:ALAB Feb25/25 $77.25USD $191.20USD +148%
RAMBUS INC. NASDAQ:RMBS June15/25 $59USD $74.81USD +27%
BIGBEAR.AI NYSE:BBAI Mar12/24 $2.80USD $5.03USD +90%
AMPLIFY JUNIOR SILVER MINERS ETF NYSE:SILJ Apr20/25 $13.65USD $18.98USD +39%
SHOALS TECHNOLOGIES GROUP NASDAQ:SHLS Jun20/25 $4.80USD $7.16USD +49%
ESS INC. NYSE:GWH Jun05/25 $1.22USD $1.37USD +13%
TECOGEN INC. NYSE:TGEN Aug17/25 $8.80USD $7.04USD -20%
NIOCORP DEVELOPMENTS NASDAQ:NB Oct20/23 $3.62USD $4.27USD +18%
ON SEMICONDUCTOR NASDAQ:ON Aug18/25 $48.15USD $49.11USD +2%
CLEAR BLUE TECHNOLOGIES CBLU.V Sept07/23 $0.27CAD $0.06CAD -78%
INCOME Ticker Date added Initial Price Current Price Yield(%)
Purpose Ether Yield ETF TSX:ETHY Jan11/24 $3.90CAD $4.28CAD 12.20%
Purpose Bitcoin Yield ETF TSX:BTCY Feb06/24 $4.89CAD $9.09CAD 20.85%
BMO Covered Call Utilities TSX:ZWU Jun10/24 $10.39CAD $11.18CAD 8.08%
BMO Money Market ETF TSX:ZMMK Jul16/24 $50CAD $50CAD 3.44%
Evolve Global Materials ETF TSX:BASE Jun01/25 $22.40CAD $22.62CAD 10.61%
BMO Covered Call Energy ETF TSX:ZWEN Mar01/25 $27.59CAD $27.85CAD 9.34%
Alerian MLP ETF NYSE:AMLP Jul01/25 $48.28USD $48.28USD 8.01%
Global X Cdn Oil & Gas ETF TSX:ENCC Jul01/25 $10.37CAD $10.61CAD 13.61%

Remember that this is not a stock recommendation. This is just something to consider. You can access the watchlist and portfolio through the link below. By clicking the link below you accept all responsibility for any potential losses that might result from buying any of the stocks mentioned in this newsletter.




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