The New Battleground
Growing up, I was mesmerized by fighter jets. As a kid in the 1980s, I kept hearing about something called the Blackbird—a plane so fast it could fly faster than the speed of sound. I didn’t fully understand it, but the idea alone felt unreal. Then, in the 1990s, I started reading about stealth fighter jets—aircraft designed not just to fly fast, but to avoid detection altogether. What stood out wasn’t just how advanced these machines were, but that all of these leaps seemed to be coming from the same place: the United States.
One breakthrough followed another. The most advanced aircraft. The most secretive programs. Capabilities other nations simply didn’t have. Again and again, the next leap appeared to come out of the U.S., setting a new bar while the rest of the world worked to catch up. At the time, I assumed it was superior technology, better engineers, or more ambitious designs.
I didn’t understand then what I understand now.
Those breakthroughs weren’t just about electronics, better engineers or clever shapes. They were made possible by materials. New alloys. Exotic inputs. Advances in what could be built, how light it could be, how strong it could be, and how much heat it could withstand. Materials were the quiet force behind those leaps—what gave American aerospace its edge long before the rest of the world knew what was happening.
Over the past five years, especially since 2020, I’ve spent a lot of time studying commodities, metals, minerals, and materials. And as I’ve watched the world change, it’s become clear that materials are moving from the background to the foreground, as nations compete not just on technology, but on access, control, and supply.
That’s the lens for this month’s Something to Consider. Instead of a long written breakdown, I’ve put together a short visual presentation that explores how materials created the technological edge in the past—and why they’re becoming strategically important again today.
NIOCORP — Where Things Stand
I’ve been following this story longer than most people realize. It goes back to around 2017, when I first read a research paper about new battery compositions that could allow electric vehicles to charge in under ten minutes. That sent me down a much bigger rabbit hole—not just batteries, but the materials behind them. The metals and inputs that quietly make breakthroughs possible long before they show up in products.
That path eventually led me to NioCorp. I first wrote about the company two years ago in Trendpost Issue 009, when the story was still largely about potential. Since then, I’ve kept watching. Waiting. Letting the narrative mature before revisiting it.
Here’s where NioCorp stands today. After years of planning and permitting, the company is finally reaching a real turning point. Construction at the Elk Creek project is scheduled to begin in Q1 2026, marking the move from idea to execution.
That shift matters. There’s a meaningful difference between a story built on potential and one backed by timelines, contracts, and strategic relevance. NioCorp is crossing that line. It’s still early, but the pieces are now on the board: a fully permitted project, growing government interest in domestic supply chains, and real-world validation of scandium’s role in advanced aerospace applications.
From a portfolio perspective, this is the type of moment that deserves attention. The market remains skeptical, and execution risk is real. But that skepticism is reflected in the price. At current levels, the risk-reward finally looks attractive for a measured position.
I’m adding a second tranche at $5.50. Not because the path will be smooth, and not because I expect quick gratification—but because I believe in the long-term story. I’m comfortable committing capital here, knowing the thesis may take time and patience to play out.
This isn’t a trade. It’s a long-term position built around materials becoming more strategic over time—and one small company moving into position before that shift is fully recognized.
A Note on Risk
It’s important to be clear about the risks here. NioCorp is still in the early stages of execution, and early-stage resource projects carry real uncertainties—construction timelines, financing conditions, commodity pricing, and broader market sentiment can all impact outcomes. This is not a guaranteed path, and there may be periods of volatility or drawdowns along the way. I’m comfortable with that risk because the position is sized appropriately within the portfolio, the timeline matches my investment horizon, and the potential upside aligns with the strategic importance of the materials involved.